Updating bayesian priors my dating disasters diary read online
All the work to obtain posteriors would have been accomplished by the likelihoods. [i]Both were contributions to the RMM (2011) volume: Special Topic: Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They Meet in 2011 and Beyond? The published comments are here (Mayo) and here (Senn). “The Case for Objective Bayesian Analysis.” Discussions and Responses on Senn and Gelman can be found searching this blog: Commentary on Berger & Goldstein: Christen, Draper, Fienberg, Kadane, Kass, Wasserman, Rejoinders: Berger, Goldstein, REFERENCES Berger, J. This was used as the picture for her May 2 2014 colloquium talk on non-technical argument Birnbaum at VT " data-medium-file="https://errorstatistics.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/mayo-thebes-living-room-poster-picture.jpg?[iii] At first I thought Good was commenting on Lindley. “Induction and Deduction in Bayesian Data Analysis.” Senn, S. “You May Believe You Are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong.” Berger, J. w=229" data-large-file="https://errorstatistics.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/mayo-thebes-living-room-poster-picture.jpg? We can't really know what's in C3PO's head, but let's assume that not too many people have actually made it through an asteroid field and in general not that many people try (because it's crazy! We're going to say that C3PO has records of 2 people surviving and 7,440 people ending their trip through the asteroid field in a glorious explosion!Below is a plot of the Probability Density Function that represents C3PO's belief in the true rate of success when entering an asteroid field..Even the first time you watch you know that Han can pull it off.
Superficially this is just a fun movie dismissing "boring" data analysis, but there's actually an interesting dilemma here.
Bartholomew came up in this blog in discussing when Bayesians and frequentists can agree on numbers.
Han Solo, attempting to evade enemy fighters, flies the Millennium Falcon into an asteroid field.
Is it legitimate to change one’s prior based on the data?
I don’t mean update it, but reject the one you had and replace it with another.